Coffee Corner: Worst Case Scenarios

David Attenborough, a national treasure to Britain and a global treasure to those who like nature documentaries, often ends with a glimmer of hope that the world is not going to hell in a handbasket and that great strides are and can be made to preserve and protect our fragile existence on Earth.  Of late, much attention has been paid to the coffee industry from an agricultural perspective that paints a not-so-rosy future.  An article published in the beginning of 2022 by National Geographic predicts that by 2050 the amount of airable land suitable for coffee agriculture will have a net decrease globally with some countries experiencing a more significant decline (Brazil, Colombia, et al) and others gaining (continental USA as well as Argentina, to name a few).   As an agricultural crop that produces about 10 million metric tonnes a year to keep the world alert, happy and productive, the consequences for a decline in output would transcend our industry to all others.  As coffee is highly inelastic (demand will not abate as price goes up), should the predictions of less airable land translate into less supply, rising cost episodes like we have just experienced on the ICE (intercontinental Exchange) may end up being the norm.

So we have the bleak scenario of what climate change can do to our industry with ramifications that will vertically affect everyone in the chain from farmers to consumers.  What the history of predictions has taught us is that worst case scenarios rarely come true.  Seneca, the great Roman statesman and philosopher said, “we suffer more in imagination than in reality”.  His point was that if we can imagine worst case situations then rather than letting anxiety take over (the suffering), we tend to do something about it so that the worst-case does not materialize.  T. R. Malthus, the late 18^th century economist warned that the population of his time was susceptible to painful expansion and contraction when abundance or famine came a knocking.  His position was that the world could not sustain any more people than it already had and if it did, it would lead to great hardship – which is saying something as life was already pretty rough in his time.  He would have been right; except he did not consider people’s propensity to solve problems and improve their lot in life through technological advancement.  At the time he wrote his seminal work on populations (1798) there were about 1 billion souls on planet Earth.  A little more than 200 years later and we have crested 8 billion.

Already, there are agronomists and botanists who are looking at new hybrids of coffee trees which will be better suited to resist heat should the rest of the scientific and industrial communities working to lower global warming not be as successful as hoped.  New and better field husbandry is being incorporated into coffee agriculture (indeed, all agriculture!) and the push for even better sustainability is all around us.  I say “even better sustainability” as there are quite a number of working coffee plantations that have been in existence for over 100 years in the same location, a testament to sustainability before that word became “cool”.

Like David Attenborough’s works, the real-life documentary of our industry has much beauty, intersected with periods of drama, and moments of danger.  And like one of his films, the message at the end of the day is one of hope, resilience and a sign that says “to be continued…”     

Brian Martell
Heritage Coffee Co Ltd